Summary

Darkforest refers to a state of AI development where the AI systems, instead of innovating or producing new ideas, primarily aim to replicate or slightly improve existing successful models. It’s named after the ‘Dark Forest’ concept in sci-fi, where civilizations avoid broadcasting their existence to avoid destruction by advanced civilizations.

ELI5

Imagine you’re in a dark forest where you’re not sure who or what else might be out there. It’s safer to stay quiet and copy what’s working than to try to make lots of noise and invent new things, since you don’t know who or what might hear you and react. That’s what happening with some AI systems these days. Instead of trying new things, they’re quiet and copying what already works well.

In-depth explanation

The term ‘Darkforest’ in the context of AI development comes from Liu Cixin’s sci-fi trilogy ‘The Three-Body Problem’. The ‘Dark Forest’ theory in the books postulates that every civilization in the universe keeps its existence hidden fearing destruction from a technologically advanced civilization.

Translating this to AI development, Darkforest suggests a bottleneck or reduced innovation phase where instead of devising new models or techniques, researchers primarily attempt to recreate or minutely enhance existing models that are known to behave predictably and deliver effective results.

There could be various reasons for this ‘dark forest’ state of AI development. One significant reason is the complexity of newer AI models. As AI models are becoming more difficult to understand and evaluate, researchers can prefer optimizing existing models over innovating new yet incomprehensible models.

Another reason could be the ‘winner-takes-all’ nature of AI research where successful models take the limelight, marginalizing potential innovative ideas. The fear of negative unforeseen consequences from an experimental model might also play a part.

The industry considers Darkforest to be a phase in AI development which can lead to saturation, where AI development becomes highly derivative and less innovative. It is a form of local optima in innovation, where we might not be exploring the broader space efficiently.

Bottleneck in AI Development, AI Winter, The Three-Body Problem, Black Box AI, Local Optima in Innovation, Innovation Saturation.