Summary

Precision in classification refers to the ability of a model to identify only the relevant data points. It’s the fraction of true positives among the total positive predictions made. It helps in understanding the model’s performance in terms of undesirable false-positive outcomes.

ELI5

Imagine you’re playing a game of fetch and you trained your robotic dog to bring back just the yellow tennis balls. If the robot brings back all yellow balls and no other balls, it’s doing a precise job, even if it misses some yellow ones. Precision in classification is just like this: it’s about how many of the thrown balls your robot fetches are actually the right color (yellow).

In-depth explanation

Precision is a key evaluation metric in the field of machine learning, especially valuable in classification problems. It is a measure of a classifier’s exactness. A low precision can also indicate a high number of false positives.

Precision is defined mathematically as the ratio of True Positives to the sum of True Positives and False Positives. Here True Positives are the number of positives that are correctly identified by your model. False Positives, on the other hand, are the negatives that are incorrectly identified as positives.

Let’s consider an example of an email spam filter. True Positives would be the spam emails that were correctly identified as spam, while False Positives would be normal emails incorrectly flagged as spam. Precision will tell us, from the emails our model flagged as spam (both right and wrong), what fraction were actually spam. In other words, precision answers the question “how many emails flagged as spam are actually spam?”

It’s crucial because sometimes false positives are very costly. For instance, in spam detection, a false positive means an important email could end up in the spam folder. That’s certainly something undesirable - and thus, having a high precision reduces that chance.

One important factor to note is that precision alone can’t give a complete picture of a model’s performance - it has to be examined in context with other metrics like recall (or sensitivity). The combination of precision and recall is often used to compute the F1 score, a single metric that balances both recall and precision.

False Positive, True Positive, Recall, Sensitivity, F1 Score, Classification, Machine Learning (ML), Evaluation Metrics